AUDUSD H1 is sitting at a critical institutional decision point. Will smart money defend demand for a relief expansion, or will bearish flow continue toward fresh liquidity? Let’s break down the chart using Smart Money Concepts.
⚠️ This is an educational video, not investment advice.
🔍 Market Structure & Context:
The H1 structure reveals a dominant bearish trend. Multiple bearish Breaks of Structure (BOS) confirm heavy institutional distribution. Sell-side liquidity has been swept near recent lows, and price is building a base inside demand, waiting for directional expansion.
📉 Scenario A: Trend-Following Setup (70% Probability)
Our primary focus remains with the dominant trend.
Entry Zone: 0.6915 – 0.6930 (Waiting for Mitigation)
Invalidation Level: 0.6945 (A break above changes our bias)
Bearish Objectives (Liquidity Targets):
Scenario 1: Reaching T1
Scenario 2: Expanding down to T2
Scenario 3: Extending to new swing lows
📈 Scenario B: Counter-Trend Relief Rally (30% Probability)
Alternatively, a relief rally could materialize from the alternative pullback demand zone floor.
Entry Zone: 0.6865 – 0.6875 (Waiting for Mitigation & bullish structure shift)
Invalidation Level: 0.6850 (A break below invalidates this setup)
Bullish Objectives:
Scenario 1: Hitting T1
Scenario 2: Ascending higher to T2
Scenario 3: Completing at T3
💡 Summary:
If buyers reclaim higher supply, structural bias shifts, but failure at overhead zones ensures the dominant downtrend continues.
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